SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
We've got a full shopping cart of economic data this week. In fact, one of the things the numbers tell us is that Americans are still shopping. Consumer spending grew in late summer and early fall, and meanwhile, inflation is slowing down. What might all this mean for their presidential election just a few days off? NPR's chief economics correspondent, Scott Horsley, joins us. Scott, thanks for being with us.
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: Great to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: Scott, The Economist just had a cover story calling the U.S. economy the envy of the world, but a lot of Americans demonstrably don't seem to feel that way. Why do you think that is?
HORSLEY: Yeah. People are still feeling the sting of cumulative price hikes over the last few years. Even though inflation has cooled off a lot, people know they're still paying more for groceries and cars and rent than they used to. And while wages are catching up, it's going to take some time for attitudes to catch up as well. We did see an uptick this week in consumer confidence. But consumers don't feel as good about the economy as some of the economic indicators might suggest, and that could color the way they feel about the upcoming election. I spoke this week with chief economist Mark Zandi at Moody's Analytics. He happens to live in West Chester, Pennsylvania, which is right in the thick of this hotly contested presidential race.
MARK ZANDI: My street's ground zero. Yeah, I was just running, and I was counting the lawn signs, and I'll have to tell you it's 50/50 on the nose.
HORSLEY: As the smart money says, Scott, it could come down to turnout.
SIMON: Well, Americans are still turning out to spend money, both in person and online. What do the numbers say about that?
HORSLEY: Yeah, we just saw another blockbuster quarter of sales from Amazon. Consumer spending helped power another strong quarter of economic growth in July, August and September. White House economist Lael Brainard acknowledged this week that the cost of housing and child care is still a burden for a lot of families. But she noted the U.S. economy has bounced back faster and stronger from the pandemic than most other countries around the world.
LAEL BRAINARD: Let's not squander this progress by taking actions that would take us back. The sweeping tariffs on every product from every country that some congressional Republicans are promoting would take us back to the kind of supply chain disruptions, price spikes and consumer pain that we saw during the pandemic.
HORSLEY: Of course, sweeping tariffs are a centerpiece of former President Trump's economic platform. Mainstream economists say taxing all imports like that would raise costs for U.S. businesses and consumers and likely invite retaliation against U.S. exports, just as it did the last time Trump was in the White House.
SIMON: Some disappointing news about the job market in the numbers on Friday. But with an asterisk?
HORSLEY: Yeah. The government's monthly employment report showed a sharp drop in the number of jobs added last month, but the slowdown was probably exaggerated by hurricanes Helene and Milton and by the ongoing strike at Boeing. The unemployment rate, which is less affected by those temporary factors, held steady, and that suggests the overall job market is still doing OK. We continue to see a lot of retiring baby boomers, which is shrinking the U.S.-born workforce. Luckily, economist Zandi says we've managed to attract a lot of foreign-born workers to help fill the gap.
ZANDI: Of course, the number of immigrants coming into the country over the past couple of years has put a lot of pressure on communities across the country. But the benefit of that is that it's adding to labor supply, the people out there who want to work, and it's taken pressure off the economy, allowed it to grow more quickly without generating inflationary pressures.
HORSLEY: Now, former President Trump has promised mass deportation of immigrants who are in the country illegally. He also has a history of curtailing legal immigration. But the numbers are pretty clear. If it weren't for immigrant workers, there's no way the U.S. could be adding as many jobs as it has been.
SIMON: NPR's Scott Horsley, thanks so much.
HORSLEY: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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