AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
We now want to focus on how negotiations over a ceasefire are being received by Ukrainians, especially as it appears a deal would make them cede territory in influence to Russia. Nataliya Gumenyuk is a Ukrainian journalist based in Kyiv and the co-founder of The Reckoning Project, which has been documenting human rights abuses during the war. Good morning.
NATALIYA GUMENYUK: Good morning.
RASCOE: Tomorrow is the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. You write in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs magazine that considering the human cost of the war and Russia's massive firepower, you might think Ukrainians would be eager to end the war. But you say that's not true. How do Ukrainians feel about the ceasefire discussions between the U.S. and Russia?
GUMENYUK: So Ukrainians are eager to end the war but with some level of the security guarantees. So for instance, the ceasefire, which at current position, will benefit Russia because Russia needs the post to rearm itself, you know, to decrease the Western support to Ukraine. And the concern is very serious that this ceasefire might give time for Russia for bigger war, when Ukraine would be, let's say, demobilized, and occupy more territories.
What I'm also claiming in the article that we not speaking just about the human rights abuses, but how Russia uses the occupied territories to militarize them, to create a larger launchpad for even future invasion. And that's what Ukrainians trying to explain, that it's currently better to go on fighting rather to give more time for Russia to wage even a bigger war in some time. And that part is missing in these talks because they are not even at all about that.
RASCOE: Right now, Ukraine's economy is strong, exports are up, inflation is low. But this is all being held up by Western aid. If the U.S. reduces its military aid to the country, will Ukraine have much choice but to go along with a ceasefire?
GUMENYUK: First of all, it's important to understand that the figures mentioned by the American president are so far away from the truth. So, yes, Ukraine is dependent on the Western support, but in particular, the support for the economy is mainly coming from the Europeans, which are giving way, you know, like, three times more than the United States, roughly.
There are particular things which the U.S. have in defense the Europeans don't have. So currently, with how things are discussed today, Ukrainians are literally seriously considering how to fight and how to continue if, all of sudden, the new administration would withhold the support. So it's not about whether Ukraine will. It's a question how Ukraine will do that and how the Ukrainians will do that.
Of course, it vice versa just will prolong the war and would make, you know, the cost higher for the Ukrainians. But it's still better than possible further occupation by Russia and getting under the Russian control, which something they demand at this point.
RASCOE: The U.S. has asked for the rights to half of Ukraine's mineral and oil reserves in exchange for any support from the U.S. President Zelenskyy dismissed the initial offers, but reports now say he might sign a revised agreement. How do Ukrainians feel about that?
GUMENYUK: So Ukrainian government tries to be pragmatic and even, like, trying to say like, let's not speak that bad about the, you know, American administration because we need to work with them. It doesn't matter because, you know, Vice President JD Vance still would say that, I know, like, Ukrainians are, like, rude, whatsoever. But yes, the document in the process. The problem with that offer, let's say, like that, there is nothing on the table to Ukraine to get. It's kind of the demand of Ukraine to give something, but it's no clarity what would be given on return.
And something else, what is very important for Ukraine from the U.S. beyond everything, it's actually security guarantees because, of course, U.S. as a strong state, as a huge state, together with Europe, are the only forces which can pressure Moscow, and, you know, in some ways, stabilize situation if it's serious. And for the guarantee, the U.S. doesn't look like a strong, trustful partner. So the question is, like, what guarantees actually the U.S. will give Ukraine overall if they behave this way?
RASCOE: Last week, President Trump said Ukraine doesn't affect the United States very much. You previously have written that President Trump needs to understand how a Russian victory could hurt him. Could you explain what you mean by that?
GUMENYUK: So even in the U.S., there were quite few Republicans who were criticizing Donald Trump for siding with Vladimir Putin. Siding with the Russian president, I should think it would be quite damaging for his image. And also, if something happened in Ukraine, he wants to be victorious. He wants to look like the peacemaker. But the downfall of Ukraine might be considered as his guilt.
But other way, it looks like Donald Trump is unfortunately played by the Russians who kind of use the flattering and - but it's a temporary. So in the end, there are very little chances that, you know, Russia would be the friend of the U.S. They still would consider the U.S. their adversaries, but they would use the moment to weaken the West, to weaken the Europe, to weaken transatlantic alliance. And that's something they really want, to weaken the American position globally. And that's exactly what unfortunately happening, and also considering the United States as a trustful partner for all their allies which are existing globally.
RASCOE: That is Nataliya Gumenyuk. She is a Ukrainian journalist. She is the author of "The Lost Island: Tales From The Occupied Crimea." Thanks so much for being with us this morning.
GUMENYUK: Thank you.
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