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What are the prospects for peace in Ukraine 3 years after Russia launched its war?

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

That meeting between Trump and Macron comes on the third anniversary of Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).

FADEL: Since then nearly every day, Russian drones and missiles have hit Ukraine, striking military targets, but also power plants, hospitals, schools and homes. Ukraine has responded with a growing number of attacks, primarily with its own drones, striking energy targets on Russian soil. Joining us to talk about the state of the war three years in and President Trump's efforts to end it are NPR's Joanna Kakissis in Kyiv and NPR's Russia correspondent Charles Maynes. Hi to you both.

CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Good morning.

JOANNA KAKISSIS, BYLINE: Good morning.

FADEL: Joanna, let's start with you. What is life in Ukraine like now?

KAKISSIS: Well, Leila, on the surface, it looks normal here - people going to work, kids going to school. Shops and restaurants are busy. And a majority of Ukrainians keep saying they want to keep defending the country until Russian troops are forced out of occupied land. But under that steeliness, under that normalcy, there is a deep, unspoken stress. Russian attacks are part of daily and nightly life here. This weekend, Ukraine says Russia launched its largest drone attack of the war, more than 260 drones in one night. We heard two hours of explosions as Ukrainian air defense tried to shoot these down. And, Leila, there is also collective grief here. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been wounded or killed.

Here in Kyiv, we spoke to Maryna Burtyk. She is a 47-year-old housekeeper, and her husband Mykola was killed last year on the front line defending eastern Ukraine. She told us she does not want his loss to have been in vain.

MARYNA BURTYK: (Through interpreter) When my husband was killed, when there are so many deaths, many missing, you think, was it necessary? Maybe it was my pain that broke me. But the fact that Ukraine has to exist is 100% for me. Maybe it will be smaller in size, but we will be just as strong in spirit.

KAKISSIS: Now, Leila, a growing number of Ukrainians say they would consider giving up territory in exchange for peace. But for soldiers or for those who have lost loved ones, this is a bitter pill.

FADEL: Yeah, of course. Charles, same question to you. How does the conflict look to Russian eyes at the three-year mark?

MAYNES: Well, I think it's important to remember that officially, the Kremlin still calls this a special military operation. That's implying a limited intervention when clearly that's not the case. You know, for some time now, this has been a war of attrition with Russia holding the upper hand and men and materiel. Now, Russian troops have made steady advances much of the past year. But to put that in some perspective, those territorial gains were still relatively small, and they've come with enormous losses. And so there's a sense of growing fatigue in Russian society. You know, everywhere there are military recruitment posters and slogans promising victory. Yet when I talk to Russians, what I often hear is a kind of passive desire for the fighting to end. Take people like Irina, who until recently worked in the security services and declined to provide her last name out of fear of violating wartime censorship laws.

IRINA: (Speaking Russian).

MAYNES: So here she says the war really weighed on her initially, and so she stopped watching the news altogether. She told me she wants peace, but she also recognizes there is nothing she can do to make it happen.

FADEL: So you're both describing this fatigue three years in. And now, there's the U.S. President Trump factor. Charles, how has his move to normalize relations with Russia changed the prospects for ending the war on Russia's terms?

MAYNES: Well, over the weekend, the Kremlin spokesman called Trump's efforts promising, and you can see why. For three years, the Biden White House sought to isolate and sanction Russia over its invasion. By contrast, here comes President Trump. He's reached out to Moscow to work together to end the war. There was that lengthy phone call with Vladimir Putin, then this high-level meeting between U.S. and Russian delegations in Saudi Arabia, without Ukraine or European allies invited, I might add. And Russia came out of those talks saying they really felt as though someone in Washington understood, finally, was really listening when it came to their security concerns about Ukraine and about NATO expansion. And that's opened a path towards more negotiations aimed not only at ending the war, but normalizing relations more generally.

FADEL: So Russia feeling heard and maybe empowered. Joanna, how has the about-face by the U.S. changed how Ukraine views its prospects?

KAKISSIS: Yeah. Well, Leila, it sent many Ukrainians into doomsday mode, because the U.S. has been Ukraine's most important single ally. President Zelenskyy has tried to stay optimistic, even as President Trump has attacked Zelenskyy personally, calling him a dictator and repeating Kremlin talking points. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Zelenskyy said he did not mind what was said about him, that he would keep trying to negotiate a good deal for Ukraine, even if it means leaving his job.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY: (Through interpreter) If peace for Ukraine requires me to step down, then I'm ready. I could also trade my position for NATO membership for Ukraine, if that's what it takes.

KAKISSIS: Now, Leila, both the Kremlin and the Trump administration oppose NATO membership for Ukraine. So Zelenskyy's offer likely won't work.

FADEL: Charles, what are you watching for from Russia as negotiations to end the war move forward?

MAYNES: Well, if we look at the U.S.-Russian track, I think the contours of any negotiated peace are really anybody's guess. Trump's secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said it'll be a solution, quote, "acceptable to all sides." But President Trump, you know, he's gone on record ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine. He's also said the possibility of Ukraine regaining its lost territory is unlikely - in effect, critics say bowing to two key Russian demands before negotiations ever began. And amid all this, the Kremlin seems to be hardening its stance. It insists it will never relinquish any territory seized from Ukraine, just as it has ruled out any peacekeeping force from European NATO member countries that could provide some kind of security guarantee to Kyiv. So you can't help but get the feeling, at least so far, that Russia is using Trump's rush to get a ceasefire in place to its own benefit.

FADEL: And, Joanna, what's Ukraine looking for in these negotiations?

KAKISSIS: Well, President Zelenskyy says he wants a fair and just peace for Ukraine, but Ukraine cannot protect itself without allies. Zelenskyy continues to work with the Trump administration on a deal that would give the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars of Ukraine's critical raw materials in exchange for security guarantees. Today, he's welcoming a dozen world leaders to the Capitol to mark three years of Russia's full-scale war, and among them are European Union leaders who see Russia as a threat not only to Ukraine, but to all of Europe.

FADEL: Charles, Joanna, you've both covered this since the beginning from the two very different sides. Any person or moment that's basically stuck with you through it all? Charles, I'll start with you.

MAYNES: Well, you know, at the beginning of the war, I was down in southern Russia near the border, spending time with Russian nationalists, these are Cossacks who were very much in favor of the invasion. But in their quieter moments, they would admit that they thought that Russia could do more to improve life at home before trying to improve, say, life in the Donbas.

FADEL: And, Joanna?

KAKISSIS: Well, also in the first year of the war, I met the citizens of Kherson in the south - the city in the south - who risked their lives to sabotage Russian soldiers occupying them, and they forced them out. And it speaks to how determined the Ukrainians are.

FADEL: NPR's international correspondents, Joanna Kakissis and Charles Maynes.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Joanna Kakissis is a foreign correspondent based in Kyiv, Ukraine, where she reports poignant stories of a conflict that has upended millions of lives, affected global energy and food supplies and pitted NATO against Russia.
Leila Fadel is a national correspondent for NPR based in Los Angeles, covering issues of culture, diversity, and race.