A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Who doesn't love a good underdog story? Year after year, the NCAA basketball tournament usually delivers, with a Cinderella team emerging from the pack. That's a low-seeded team that, against all odds, continues to win and knock off better teams. But can these teams be made, or is it all just luck? Martenzie Johnson of ESPN's Andscape is on the line with us to talk about this. So, Martenzie, what are the qualities of a great Cinderella story?
MARTENZIE JOHNSON: Good morning, A. I have a few theories on how, you know, a Cinderella can get through, right? I think, first of all, you have to have a star player who just shines when, you know, the lights are the brightest. So you think of Steph Curry in 2008 - kind of the legend of him is born at Davidson when they get to the final four. Or even last year, Oakland, with Jack Gohlke, who made 16 3-pointers over the two games that Oakland got through. Speaking of 3-pointers, you have to make 3-pointers, right? So Oakland made a lot of those. They made 15 versus Kentucky, which is how they upset the No. 1 seed last year. And then, you know, you can go back to 2018 - Loyola never shot below 38% from 3s. So you got to make those 3s. And then you got to play defense - right? - because if you can't limit the other team, then you have...
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
JOHNSON: ...Absolutely no chance because you're kind of outmanned there. And Saint Peter's did that, I think, in 2022, where they - when they play Kentucky and Purdue, they never allow either of them to shoot over 30% from 3s. And lastly, I think the real key to being a Cinderella is you got to play Purdue or Kentucky, right? Kentucky lost to a 14 seed...
MARTÍNEZ: (Laughter).
JOHNSON: ...Oakland, in 2024. They lost to a 15 seed, Saint Peter's, in 2022. And then Purdue lost to a 16 seed in 2023. They lost to a 15 seed in 2022, and then they lost to a 13 seed, North Texas, in 2021. Now, that all being said, Purdue did go to the national championship last year. But if you play those two teams, you got a really good chance, A.
MARTÍNEZ: Well, so High Point - 13 seed playing 4-seed Purdue. I mean, and you got to have a cool name to be a Cinderella story, too. High Point - I mean, what a team name. That looks like a winner right there.
JOHNSON: Yeah, so they have one of the qualifications. I didn't mention this, but you got to be able to rebound, too. So if you can...
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
JOHNSON: ...Get second-chance points for yourself. Obviously, that leads to more points - right? - but then you can limit the second-chance points to the other team as well. And High Point is the 24th-ranked team in the nation when it comes to rebound. And that might not sound like a lot - right? - but there are over a hundred teams that we're talking about here, so that's pretty good for a really low seed, and they can make 3-pointers. Now, granted, Purdue can defend that pretty well, but this is March. They call it March Madness. You never really know. So High Point has a really good chance.
MARTÍNEZ: My cousin told me that we should root for Drake University because the rapper Drake had such a tough time against Kendrick Lamar in his battle, so we should root for that Drake instead.
JOHNSON: Yeah, see, A, we haven't talked hip-hop, really, in...
MARTÍNEZ: I know.
JOHNSON: ...The few times that I've come on. I'm not the biggest Drake fan, so I got to go against your cousin here. They might have a chance, but when you're named Drake in 2025, it's not looking too good for you.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So any team in particular you have your eye on to be the Cinderella story?
JOHNSON: Yeah, actually, watching last night - Mount St. Mary, who played American University. I know this is going to sound crazy because Duke is one of the few teams we've heard about this year, and they're No. 1 seed, but Cooper Flagg did hurt his ankle during the conference tournament. A, the - Duke still won without him in the championship, but he's hobbled. And St. Mary's, out of all these Cinderella teams - I got to tell you, A, they do the basics right. They can make layups. They don't look awkward shooting 3-pointers. They can make 3-pointers. And one thing that, you know, a lot of teams that we're talking about here have in common is that they have a lot of juniors and seniors...
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
JOHNSON: ...And Mount St. Mary has that.
MARTÍNEZ: They play together. That means they're a stronger team, right? Martenzie Johnson of ESPN's Andscape. Thanks for being with us.
JOHNSON: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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