JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
When the stock market drops, investors typically sell stocks and buy bonds. Bonds are assets that are perceived as safer, with lower risk, and the safest of those are usually bonds issued by the U.S. government, known as Treasurys. But that is not what happened this past week. NPR's Mary Childs from the Planet Money podcast joins us now. Hi.
MARY CHILDS, BYLINE: Hi. Thanks for having me.
SUMMERS: Mary, it was a wild week. Tell us what happened.
CHILDS: It was very wild. So earlier this week, when the biggest tariffs were still on and it looked like Trump was not going to back down, investors were selling U.S. stocks aggressively, but they were also selling Treasurys. Prices on Treasurys dropped, too. And some of the biggest moves - some of the moves in the 30-year bond were the biggest since the 1980s. And as you said, it's really unusual to see both markets selling off like this. They're supposed to move in opposite directions. So this is a sign that something big might be changing.
SUMMERS: Well, the fact that this is happening, what could that mean?
CHILDS: It might mean that investors are starting to see U.S. Treasurys as not the safe thing to flee to. So this action in the market suggests that investors are suddenly scared not just of risk, which you can see from them fleeing stocks, but that they're actually scared of U.S. assets in general. They seem to be fleeing U.S. financial markets more broadly. And you can tell because of how bond markets work and how government bond markets work.
Investors demand more compensation in interest payments for more perceived risk. So typically, governments of economies that are seen as more safe and stable get charged a lower interest rate when they sell bonds compared to what developing economies have to offer investors. But all of a sudden, the market is not treating the U.S. like a developed economy as much anymore. And actually, the former treasury secretary, Larry Summers, tweeted about this phenomenon, saying, quote, "we are being treated by global financial markets like a problematic, emerging market."
SUMMERS: I mean, I got to ask, is there something to what he's saying there?
CHILDS: It is sort of surprising. Yes, right now, you know, Greece, Italy, Czechia have lower yields on their 10-year bonds than the U.S. does. I mean, we're still a ways away from the 10-plus-percent yields for countries like Colombia or South Africa, so still some context there.
SUMMERS: OK, help us understand why this matters. What does this particular market mean practically for the government as well as the economy?
CHILDS: So higher yields are generally bad for governments because issuing bonds at higher rates means those bonds are just more expensive. They're going cost more in interest payments. And, you know, a government would prefer to use its money providing services to its citizens instead of just making interest payments to bondholders. And higher rates translate through the economy to higher mortgage rates for would-be home buyers in the U.S. and for companies who borrow money to fund themselves.
And that's actually why this market puts more pressure on the government to change direction than, say, just a stock market drop. 'Cause there's this old saying that everyone has been citing from James Carville back in the Clinton administration - that if there's reincarnation, he wants to come back as the bond market because the bond market can intimidate everybody.
SUMMERS: (Laughter).
CHILDS: And that is still true.
SUMMERS: And, I mean, is it all bad news for the U.S. bond market? How definitive is it that we're headed in this direction?
CHILDS: Thankfully, the market signals are not totally directional. It's a little bit mixed. So the U.S. Treasury held three important auctions of government bonds this week. One on Tuesday, which did not go great - pretty tepid demand scene there. But the ones on Wednesday and Thursday both went better than expected. On Wednesday, the auction was kind of, like, shockingly successful. Markets were still freaking out about these tariffs, and the auction saw more demand than expected for U.S. government bonds, which is great news. And then on Thursday, it was pretty good demand. Not as strong, but still good.
So that's - you know, it's not all going in the negative direction, but the longer-term trend is not looking great 'cause, for the past three months, investors abroad have been selling their holdings of longer-term Treasurys as central banks around the world seek to diversify away from the United States.
SUMMERS: NPR's Mary Childs is a co-host of the Planet Money podcast. Mary, thank you.
CHILDS: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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