The book is closed on 2024, and now it’s time to reflect on the year that was and what’s to come. For the economists, it’s a mixed bag nationally and across the plains.
The previous year wasn’t the worst in American economic history, but consumers continue to battle the housing market, inflation, and losses of jobs in certain sectors.
Ernie Goss is an economics professor at Creighton University. He publishes the monthly Mid-America Business Conditions Index which covers a nine-state area from Arkansas to the Dakotas.
“For the overall economy, it’s been okay. I wouldn’t put it any stronger than that," Goss said. "For the manufacturing sector it’s not been good. What we saw for the nation, is the nation lost about 75,000 jobs in manufacturing over the course of 12 months. The nine-state region lost about 4,500 jobs in the same period of time.”
Goss said while not the strongest economy, Americans shouldn’t be on recession watch this year.
“Recession would be probably too strong of a word, but certainly it’s going to be slow going for the year in my judgement, and it’ll be a little bit slower than in 2024," Goss said. "The (Federal Reserve) is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They want to reduce interest rates, but they can’t because of excessive inflationary pressures.”
While states and regions have influence, Goss said economy watchers should pay closest attention to DC.
“The years’ going to be dominated by what goes on in Washington, unfortunately," Goss said. "That’ll be with the deficit and debt, and that’ll be also with tax revenues and what happens with the 2017 tax cuts that were passed by the Trump administration. What happens there, are those renewed?”
Goss describes the Trump administration tariff plan as a gamble which could pay off for the American and world economies if he can successfully negotiate favorable terms with China, Canada and Mexico specifically. However, if other nations elect to retaliate, that could hit the American consumer hard.